WHAT ARE THE ODDS

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Baseball Prospectus’ “Playoff Odds Report” suggests there are only a handful of teams that could possibly win the World Series.

According to the report, the New York Mets have a 38.7% chance of making the post season, a 32.5% of making it to the Divisional series and a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. The data is based on each team’s “adjusted playoff percentage and expected win percentage.” Baseball Prospectus simulated calculations suggest the Mets will win 84 games and finish with a .515 winning percentage.

So what you’re saying is, there’s a chance!?

So, who are the team’s most likely to win the World Series, according to Baseball Prospectus? The Los Angeles Dodgers are the heavy favorite, sitting on top of the rankings with a 17.7% chance. The top five teams are:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39), 17.7%
  • Los Angeles Angels (48-40), 10.2%
  • New York Yankees (48-40), 9.7%
  • Washington Nationals (48-39), 9.3%
  • St. Louis Cardinals (56-33), 9.1%

I guess this means I can cancel by MLB Extra Innings package for the second half of the season, sit back and wait for the parade through downtown Los Angeles, right? I like baseball stats, and love to debate them and how they are used, but I don’t believe there is a formula to predict the season.

Not so fast, saber-nerds.

Success in October is seized by great pitching, momentum and expectations of the unexpected. Would anyone have predicted Bucky Dent would hit a home run at Fenway Park in 1978 to beat the Red Sox in a one-game playoff? David Eckstein won a World Series MVP. Who saw that coming? Don Larsen pitched a perfect gamePat Borders led the Blue Jays  in the 1992 World Series, hitting .450 and collecting nine hits (he hit just .242 during the regular season and was a .253 lifetime hitter). Brian Doyle may be the most unknown World Series hero of all-time. He never played more than 39 in a single season, nor did he ever hit higher than .192. In the 1978 World Series, Doyle replaced Willie Randolph and went on to hit .478 (7-for-16).

So, who do you think will win it all?

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About the author

John Strubel

Hi. My name is John Strubel. Thanks for visiting my website. I write primarily about my passion: baseball. In addition, I occasionally publish posts and podcasts related to sports media, journalism and technology impacting the industry. You can also connect with me on social media @johnstrubel.

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