Maybe the economy will save the New York Mets from their own ignorance.

Maybe, but history – and they intense pressure to win now – suggest otherwise. When push comes to shove and dollars to sense, ignorance will likely prevail and the Mets will sign free agent pitcher John Lackey.

Make no mistake, Lackey has a fine pitching resume. He’s won 10 or more games seven straight seasons, including a 19-win season in 2007. Over the five-year stretch from 2003-07 Lackey pitched 200 or more innings in four times, averaging 33 starts per season. He has a career 12-4 record in 24 starts against the National League with a 2.63 ERA (161 IP and 144 strikeouts). He’s made 12 post-season starts, compiling a 3.12 ERA. Lackey is a two-time All-Star and is the proud owner of a 2002 World Series ring.

And this would be a bad signing?

“You have to take the last two years into consideration when you look at a potential long term deal,” said Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim general manager Tony Reagins.

Red flag No. 1: A long-term deal.

Lackey wants a five-year contract. Let’s assume the Mets learned their lesson in December 2004, that’s when GM Omar Minaya promptly signed Pedro Martinez to a four-year contract. It looked good in 2005 after Martinez recorded 15 wins.

In late September 2006, Martinez was sent to the disabled list, missing the entire post-season and the first five months of the 2007 season. By age 34, Martinez was no longer pitching ever fifth day. The trademark 95-mile per hour fastball was a memory left lingering in Boston. Over the final three seasons of the deal Martinez went 17-15 in 48 starts.

In the end the Mets paid $50 million to Martinez for 32 wins over four years.

When asked about Lackey, one American League scout speaking on the condition of anonymity said, “He’s not a 95-plus guy anymore, but all four of his pitches (fastball, slider, curve, changeup) are above average. You have to like the way he competes.”

Sound familiar?

Red flag No. 2: Injuries.

Lackey’s started the last two seasons on the disabled list. A strained tricep in 2008 sidelined him until May 14 and last year inflammation in his throwing elbow kept Lackey out of the rotation until May 16. To no surprise, his numbers plummeted from 224 innings pitched in 2006 to 163 in 2007. In 27 starts in 2008, Lackey compiled 176 innings pitched.

The fact that Lackey has thrown more career innings (1501) than free agents Rich Harden (753), Ben Sheets (1428) or Erik Bedard (822) is not a selling point. That’s a lot of mileage, a lot of wear-and-tear on a pitching arm.

Injuries are the first sign a power pitcher is breaking down and, for Lackey, the “check engine” light is on and the Mets need to seriously consider the past, present and future.

“There’s numbers that are going to be thrown out there until the day he signs,” added Reagins. “What we are comfortable with and what others might be comfortable with are two different things.”

What Lackey and his agent Steve Hilliard are comfortable with is a five-year deal with a sticker price around $100 million. Clearly, those numbers are unrealistic in a shrinking baseball economy. At that price, let’s hope they’re enough to keep the Mets off the lot.